Joe Blanton was having a mediocre season with Oakland, but his performance is likely to receive a spark now that he is with first-place Philadelphia. Former teammate Rich Harden has pitch extremely well in his first two starts for the Cubs, since being traded by Oakland, and I expect a similar strong performance by Blanton tonight. Blanton has dominated the Mets in two previous appearances, allowing 0 runs and only 8 hits in 15 innings of work with a 10-1 strikeout/walk ratio. Blanton is coming off a poor start last week, but he was surrounded by trade talks and distractions, and he should perform well this evening. New York’s Johan Santana is also due for a strong bounce-back performance after a rare bad outing last Thursday when he allowed 5 runs in just 4 innings at Cincinnati. It was Santana’s worst start this season and he should bounce-back as he still has an excellent 3.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP in all 20 starts with a 116-38 strikeout/walk ratio, including a 2.64 ERA and 1.24 WHIP at home.

Play UNDER the total.

The early money pushed this line from the key number of 9, down to 8½, so we now get solid value with the Over in this game. The public is reacting to the recent results of both starting pitchers, but long-term statistics are more meaningful and my power ratings predict 9.7 runs tonight. Boston’s Daisuke Matsuzaka has been strong since returning from an injury last month, but he is still struggling with control problems as evident by a very mediocre 17-13 strikeout/walk ratio in his past three starts. Matsuzaka now has 57 walks in just 88 innings this season. Seattle’s R.A. Dickey is also in solid current form during July, but he still has a weak 5.02 ERA and 1.73 WHIP in his 7 starts this season and he has been terrible at home with an 8.15 ERA and 2.21 WHIP. Dickey is due for a correction tonight.

Play OVER the total.