I mentioned in many of my articles, that if you want to win in the efficient market of sports wagering, you have to continuosly search out inefficiencies within the marketplace. It is something I pride myself on, it is tedious work of countless hours, but the return is substantial. Here is one more gem that is in my arsenol, and although it yields a minimum amount of plays per season, when you have many to call on, it adds profitability over the longhaul. So how do you find inefficiencies, in an efficient market? The answer lies in several areas, but to keynote a couple, as it pertains to this article let's limit our focus to those paramount for this inefficiency. Let's begin with the premise, and that is this. What is about the worst thing that can happen to a profeesional athlete, in terms of defeat in an NFL game? Arguably, it is getting shutout at home, on your turf, in front of a sellout crowd. That is about as humiliating as it gets for a pro athlete, a head coach, an offensive coordinator, owner, and right down to the fans and media. It is pure hell! Your now the football fanatic, that loves to lay a few sheckles on Sunday, and as you peruse the betting lines, the fresh memory of team "X" that was shutout at home engrained in your mind, makes you avoid that team like the plague, afterall, how comfortable is it to put your hard earned cash on a team that couldn't even muster a point at home? So you look at their opponent, and it feels good to know that your playing against a team that can't do anything! Well, my fellow sports gambler, that thought process will send you to the poorhouse, lickity-split! Now your the oddsmakers, knowing the public isn't going to swallow anything on team "X" unless it is nice and juicy! So knowing his clients, he is going to load a few extra points against our inept team "X". Thank you MR. oddsmaker, because you have now turned an efficient market, into an inefficient one, and I'm going to take advantage of a market that has now swung the advantage over to my side. So let's investigate how teams that were shutout in the NFL at home in their last game. Since the 1991-92 season, inclusive through the close of the 2007-08 season, which is 17 years, this has happened 45 times. Our team "X", the one that was shutout in their previous game at home is 32-13 ATS!!! That is 71.1% ATS if you play on them in their next game!!!! here is a bit more proof if you need it. Of the 32 wins, 17 of them, more than half, have been games they lost outright, but the pointspread came into play to make them a winner against the line. That represents 53% of the time, the pointspread was decisive! The NFL average of when the pointspread comes into play, is about 22% of the time. Can you now see the influence of perception? Can you see how the oddsmakers are forced to make an efficient market, inefficient, based on a particular scenerio? The pointspread was padded to the point that on more than double the occasion, it turned a loser into a winner!!!! This is what I mean by spotting inefficiencies in the marketplace. It is something I do on a daily basis, and it is why I can beat an otherwise efficient market!!! Maybe this gives you a better understanding of one element of what I do, and hopefully some incites to help you understand where the money is. Just remember when a team is shutout at home, they are truly the goose that laid the golden egg!!!! PLAY THEM NEXT GAME!!!! it is gold!!!!
 

Mr. East
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