Anyone that has followed me, realizes I am big on situational handicapping, as well as fundamental handicapping. I am always on the alert to situations pertaining to a game that are meaningful, show an elongated history of performing well, and areas where an otherwise efficient market goes inefficient. So let's get into a little conversation about Monday Night Football. For the longest time, in the early years, home dogs were gold on Monday Night, but the novelty of it, and the oddsmakers, have closed the door to that scenerio and the market has become efficient once again. Then there was noise about playing against a team that played on Monday night, because of the travel, and short work week. That was one that never truly performed, it was a nice premise, but it never validated to the extent the market became inefficient. There is one longterm premise I have followed on Monday Night Football, that has performed fantastically, and I am going to share this with you. keep in mind, I spend countless hours exploring premises, and I do everything myself. I don't get this information from anyone, I simply never trust anything I see printed, unless I have researched the data myself. So when I write an article, you can be 100% certain, I personally have this data documented in an excel spreadsheet that I created going back through every game that fits the premise. So many times when I have a premise, it does not verify, and it is onto something else. I have shared a few of the simple ones here, some are much more complex. here we go let's look into the "false" statement of playing against a team that played on Monday night the prior week. I look to play ON the team that was a blowout winner on Monday Night! First I must define blowout, and since most pointspreads, 99.5% of them, fall below 17, I used that as a BLOWOUT number. So when a team wins on Monday Night by 17 or more, they are the team to play the following week. The logic behind it is this. The old adage of playing against these teams, never verified, but do the books still consider this, and make the market a bit inefficient on these teams? I don't have a definate answer for that. What we do know, is typically teams playing on Monday NIght are very good teams, and if they are winning big, they are also playing well, or peaking. So what is the results of playing on these teams? I have data that goes back to every game played on Monday night since 1989. Teams that won by 17 or more, are 62-37 ATS the following week. That is 62.6% winners!!!!! There is also another threshhold reached as the games in this system are 100!!! That is needed to minimize the risk of error, you often get in a sample size of less that 100 for any validity. So now you have another tool in your toolbox, and I hope you use it well. Best wishes for a successful Fall Sports wagering season, and if your looking for some expert help, just check out my track record, and decie for yourself if I can be the one that shows a winning formula week in and week out.
 

Mr. East
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