When the college football season began seven weeks ago, there were 49 teams ahead of Oklahoma State in the BCS title odds and the Cowboys were a whopping 200-1 at some sportsbooks. Oklahoma State is now 6-0 straight-up and 5-0 ATS after a surprising 28-23 outright win as a 14-point road underdog at Missouri last week. Oklahoma State’s national title odds are now down to 22-1 and the Cowboys enter this week as the #8 ranked team in the nation. The question now arises… is Oklahoma State for real?

Oklahoma State finished in a three-way tie for third place in the Big XII South division last year and they barely qualified for a bowl game with a 6-6 SU regular season record. The Cowboys won the Insight Bowl with a 49-33 victory versus Indiana and Oklahoma State averaged 37.1 points during their final seven games last year, but their defense struggled and allowed 36.0 points during their final six games.

The Cowboys returned a veteran offense this year with seven starters; including quarterback Zac Robinson who had 2,824 passing yards in 2007 with a 23-9 touchdown/interception ratio. Robinson is having another strong season with 71-percent completions and an 11.0 yards per pass average with a 12/4 TD/INT ratio. Oklahoma State’s offense has been explosive all year and is averaging 48.5 points per game, 509 total yards, and 7.2 yards per play (versus opponents that allow just 34.5 ppg and 6.0 yppl).

The biggest improvement for the Cowboys this season has been their defense which struggled last year, but is now permitting just 23.0 points per game and only 5.1 yards per play (versus opponents that average 28.6 ppg and 5.5 yppl). The strength has been the Cowboys’ passing defense that is allowing just 5.5 yards per pass (versus opponents that average 6.8 ypp), but the run defense has shown some weakness and is allowing 4.4 yards per rush (versus opponents that average just 4.2 ypr).

While Oklahoma State’s 6-0 SU start has been impressive, they have done so against a weak schedule that has included two squads, Washington State and Texas A&M, that have turned out to be much worse that expected this season. Oklahoma State did boost their schedule strength with a big win at #3 Missouri last week as a 14-point underdog, but overall the Tigers held a 6.5-5.6 yards per play advantage in the game, so the question still remains if Oklahoma State is for real.

The Cowboys have a potential letdown spot on deck this week against an improved Baylor squad, especially with a huge game at #1 Texas on deck next week. Oklahoma State must also travel to #7 Texas Tech on November 8th and then finishes the regular season on November 29th with a home game versus #4 Oklahoma.

The Cowboys weak non-conference schedule will strengthen dramatically over the next two months and Oklahoma State controls their own destiny in the national title picture, but in reality they are likely to lose at least three games during this stretch. They are an extremely talented offensive team, and their pass defense has been strong, but they still have weakness versus the run. This questionable run defense and extremely tough conference schedule will probably knock Oklahoma State out of the Top 10 within the next few weeks and end a potential Cinderella Story in Stillwater.

Steve Merril enters this week on a RED~HOT 19-5 football run!

Steve Merril
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