By Jason Crowe for Steve Merril Sports

Everyone has heard the quote “Defense Wins Championships,” but have you ever utilized this mindset when making your picks? Before you rush to place all your wagers on the Under, let’s take the time to evaluate some trends from last year’s playoffs, as well as those that are developing so far in this year’s playoff series.

Over/Under in all playoff games (2007-2008)

Although the Over/Under favored the Under in last year’s playoffs, the difference may not be as predominant as you would think as just 53.2% of all games finished Under the total. This year, though May 11th, 54.2% (32 of 59) of games have finished beneath the total. Last year’s second round and finals showed the most prevalent discrepancy of all rounds concerning the Over/Under; 56.5% (13 of 23) and 75% (3 of 4), respectively of those games finished Under.

Over/Under in Game 4 of all playoff series (2007-2008)

One of the most striking trends from last year’s playoffs was the Over/Under outcome in Game #4’s as 11 out of 15 (73.3%) went Under the total. For series after the first round, the Over/Under ratio was 2-5 (71.4%). This year’s playoffs have started out following the same suite - all first round Western Conference game fours this year, and 6 out of 8 (75%) of ALL game fours, have finished under the total. It was 2-1 Under this past weekend, so overall the Under is 8-3 in all Game 4’s this year.

Favorites covering the spread (2007-2008)

This year’s playoffs have been dominated by the heavy favorites as 22 out of 35 (62.9%) favorites have covered a spread when laying more than five points in this year’s playoffs. The second round has been dominated by the favorites as well, with 12 of 15 (80.0%) covering the spread so far. The favorites in last year playoffs, after the first round, covered 55.6% (20 out of 36) of the time.

Home teams covering the spread (2007-2008)

Last year’s second round, conference finals and finals followed a convincing trend, a 21-15 (58.3%) ratio ATS, in favor of the home team. With a 62.1% (36 out of 58) record ATS, the home teams have more than laid a solid ground work in this year’s playoffs also. The top four seeds this year; Celtics, Lakers, Hornets, and Pistons, have dominated their respective home courts so far. These four top tier teams have covered an eye-catching 17 out of 20 (85%) games ATS in the playoffs this year.

Jason Crowe is a private sports analyst that specializes in both NBA and MLB handicapping.
 

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