Buying points when betting NFL Picks as gained popularity over the years. Heck, I remember when I began handicapping sports over 20 years ago that you didn't have an option to do that. You just looked at the point spread, tried to shop for the best line you could and then made your NFL Picks. So you have to wonder why you can now buy down or up, depending on which side you like, the point spread. For the unaware, it's just another way for the books to grab your money. You pay the extra "juice" to buy the points and what does it get you? Well, let's look at some facts: Over the last 15 years, only 8.3% of all NFL Picks games with a –10.5 favorite resulted in the favorite winning by 10 points. When Tampa Bay (–10.5 or –11) “lost” 20-10 to Seattle last week it was the first time in three years (26 games) that a –10.5 favorite would have pushed or covered for
someone who bought into the points versus someone who lost with the normal -10.5 line. The second most popular line where people have felt compelled to "buy" points for safety reasons is 3. During that same week that saw Seattle just come in under the "non-buying" number four NFL picks games had a line of 3. In researching action during that week sports bettors flooded the books with extra cash. All thinking to gain advantage. Unfortunately for the betting public the favorites in those four games came in at +20, +4, –6, and -17 points
from the spread. If you bet $100 on all four favorites you would have come out with -$20 loss. If you went for the "insurance" you would have ended up with a -$40 loss as you would have had to pay for the benefit of the buy. If you would have went for the underdogs where the line was turned into +3.5 or +4, those same four games would have netted you the same result. The bottom line in all of this is when the most popular NFL Picks lines (10.5 , 3) to buy points come up realize that the "insurance" does not come into play often enough to make buying it worth it. The percentages overwhelmingly show that a bettor buying the points is more often laying extra
money to either lose by more than a half or 1 point. At press time both the Arizona and Atlanta games have a 3 point betting line. You might want to look at Arizona between the two game but don's spend your hard earned money on trying to get the line to Arizons -2.5 or -2. Chances are it won't matter. Michael is coming off another winning Sunday of NFL Picks last weekend. This Sunday Michael has his strongest game of the year on tap in the Dallas/NY Giants contest! Join Michael for all of his GUARANTEED WINNER!.
| Michael Alexander | |
| Michael's NBA Tuesday Triple Play Michael took the night off on the NBA hardwood but is coming back tonight with a trio of selections that are absolutely going to take the books to school! Join Michael as he has another day of profitable NBA WINNERS! "Guys, we'll grab the cash tonight...I GUARANTEE it!" | |
| Micahel's GMAC Bowl Buster After making his dime players over $8,000 in the regular season Michael has turned up the heat the last few days with his Bowl selections! Tonight Michael racks up yet another WINNER with his GMAC Bowl Buster! This selection is a stellar 14-4 ATS since 1992! "Guys, it's another winner, plain and simple...GUARANTEED!" | |
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