By Reed Hogben for Steve Merril Sports

The general betting public usually leans to Favorites, Overs and the Home teams; therefore sportsbooks were probably happy campers after the 2007 CFL season.

Favorites and Underdogs went a perfect 50% at 36-36 ATS. Home Favorites let bettors down at 25-28 ATS, while Away Favorites made a little money at 11-8 ATS. Of those 36 covering Underdogs on the year, 21 (58%) did so by winning the game SU. This is somewhat lower than the NFL norm of about 67% and should make you think twice about automatically betting the money line when you already like a dog.

There are some explanations for this phenomenon. First, is the difference in scoring - the CFL awarding single points on punts, kickoffs and missed field goals that are not returned out of the end zone. There also seems to be an increasing trend towards taking the “field position safety” which is when teams facing 3rd down deep in their own territory purposely give up two points to move the ball out for a free kick, rather than punting. These extra one and two points help a dog get under the spread without winning straight-up.

Second, there are more late game “backdoor” covers. With only three downs (harder to run for 10 yards) and the clock stopping after 1st downs (easier to prolong the game), the trailing team (often the underdog) can get two or even three possessions in the last few minutes.

The CFL is traditionally thought of as a higher scoring league than the NFL, which was the case last year with an average score of 49 points per game (including overtime). However, with many totals posted in the 50+ point range, the overall Over-Under record was 32-40.

Home teams were 42-28-2 straight-up (SU) last year, but just 33-39 against the spread (ATS) as the back door cover potential mentioned above somewhat minimizes the home field advantage.

Lastly, don't forget scheduling factors. The CFL plays an 18 game schedule to eliminate only two of its eight teams from the playoffs. There are 8 less important inter-divisional games and 10 relatively more important divisional games. Much like college football, some of the divisional games are big rivalries and often there is a "home-and-home".

After all is said and done, the regular season may not mean much. Last year in the playoff semi-finals, the #2 seeds won non-covering squeakers. In the finals, despite home field advantage and a bye, the #1 seeds both lost straight-up. A non-covering Grey Cup win by Saskatchewan topped off a perfect 5-0 ATS for the playoff dogs and all 5 games went Under the total.

Reed Hogben M.D. “The Betting Doctor” is a full-time sports handicapper, researcher, and author. He is located in Alberta, Canada and is considered one of the top Canadian Football handicappers in the sports betting industry.
 

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